With early voting underway in several states ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, Democrats are facing growing questions about whether their traditional advantage in absentee and early voting will translate into electoral gains.
For years, Democrats have relied heavily on mail-in ballots and early voting to build participation before Election Day. However, changing voting habits, increased Republican participation in advance voting, and uncertainty about this year’s electorate are making the latest figures more difficult to interpret.
An analysis published by National Review suggests that Democrats may be experiencing some of the same concerns about early voting that Republicans have faced in previous election cycles. Although Democratic voters continue to show substantial participation in several states, analysts caution that early voting figures alone cannot determine the eventual outcome.
Early Voting Numbers Show Democratic Participation Gains
According to an October 1 analysis by CNN, more than 700,000 Americans had already voted across at least 30 states.
In several states preparing for closely watched Senate and gubernatorial contests, Democrats accounted for a larger share of absentee ballot requests than they did at a comparable point in 2024.
In Iowa, Democrats represented 67% of ballot requests, compared with 54% at the same stage two years earlier. In Pennsylvania, their share increased from 62% to 66%, while in Maine, it rose from 53% to 57%.
These figures have attracted attention because early voting can provide an initial indication of voter participation. However, ballot requests are not the same as completed ballots, and party registration does not necessarily reveal which candidate an individual will support.
The numbers also represent an early snapshot of a process that will continue until Election Day.
Republicans Are Increasing Their Focus on Early Voting
Republicans have increasingly encouraged supporters to take advantage of legally available early-voting options, marking a shift from earlier disagreements within the party over mail-in ballots.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized mail voting during previous election cycles. Nevertheless, Republican campaign organizations have worked to encourage advance voting as part of their broader turnout strategies.
Public attitudes toward early voting remain divided along partisan lines.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted in April found that 81% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents supported allowing people to vote early or by absentee ballot without providing a specific reason. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, support stood at 34%, down from 57% in 2018.
These differences in attitudes may influence how voters participate, but they do not necessarily determine which party will receive the most votes.
Why Early Voting Statistics Can Be Misleading
One of the biggest challenges for election analysts is that different methods of early voting can produce different partisan patterns.
Research compiled by the early-voting analysis project Who Shows Up found that mail voters have generally favored Democrats in recent presidential and congressional elections.
In-person early voting has shown a different pattern. According to the project’s analysis of Cooperative Election Study data, early in-person voters favored Republicans by approximately 15 percentage points in 2024.
This distinction matters because combining mail ballots and in-person early votes into a single category can conceal differences in how Republicans and Democrats participate.
A rise in early voting does not automatically mean a party is gaining new supporters. It may simply mean that people who already intended to vote are casting their ballots earlier than usual.
Differences in state election laws, ballot-request deadlines, voter registration systems, and reporting practices also make comparisons between states and election cycles more complicated.
Voter Enthusiasm Adds Another Dimension
The broader political environment may also influence turnout.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday found that 48% of respondents who supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election described themselves as very enthusiastic about voting in November. Among respondents who supported Trump in 2024, the figure was 30%.
The survey included 4,506 American adults and had a margin of error of approximately two percentage points.
The findings measure reported enthusiasm rather than actual turnout. Whether that enthusiasm translates into completed ballots will depend on voters’ decisions and participation throughout the election period.
Ohio Early Voting Draws Attention
Early voting also began Tuesday in Ohio, where some voters reportedly lined up before dawn at polling locations.
Reuters reported that Democrats outnumbered Republicans and independents among first-day voters in Medina County, despite the area’s Republican registration advantage.
Ohio is attracting attention because of its competitive Senate contest between Republican Jon Husted and former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, as well as closely watched congressional races.
However, turnout in one county on the first day of early voting cannot establish a statewide trend. Voters who participate early may differ from those who wait until Election Day, and the composition of the electorate can change substantially over the weeks leading up to November 3.
What the Numbers Mean for November 3
The early figures provide a glimpse into voter participation, but they are not a reliable standalone forecast of the midterm election results.
Democrats’ increased share of absentee ballot requests in several states, along with higher reported enthusiasm among Harris’s 2024 supporters, offers information about current participation patterns. At the same time, Republican efforts to encourage early voting complicate comparisons with previous elections.
The most meaningful picture will emerge as more ballots are cast, additional turnout data become available, and Election Day approaches.
For now, the central question is not simply which party is voting first. It is whether early participation reflects a broader expansion of the electorate, a change in voting habits, or a shift in the balance of participation between the two parties.
Until more complete data become available, election analysts caution against treating early-voting figures as evidence of a likely winner.
